Football

So do we have a legit shot at the Fiesta Bowl?

Discussion on Rich Rodriguez and the Arizona Football team

by Iggy » Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:59 pm

If UCLA beats Stanford (and of course we beat the scum) and in turn loses to Oregon in Santa Clara, I have a hard time seeing the "committee" penalizing the Bruins for that 3rd loss and us leapfrogging them to get a Big 6 bid. A few weeks ago I thought it might be possible for a third team to possibly snag a Cotton bowl bid but seeing how we lost ground after beating Washington, I just don't see it.

With that said, it seems to me that the winner on Friday will most likely be headed to San Antonio (vs. Oklahoma?) and the loser to the KFC bowl in the Bay Area (vs. Iowa/Maryland). The Holiday Bowl is still in play but if USC beats ND, and they should, they will be headed to SD as they've never been.
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by Filthy Cats » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:52 pm

He's got us playing Michigan State in the Fiesta
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
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by El Gato » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:57 pm

Filthy Cats wrote:He's got us playing Michigan State in the Fiesta
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions


We'll that would be interesting for me. My brother is a Michigan State alum.

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by Iggy » Sun Nov 23, 2014 6:57 pm

I'd buy that for $1.10! I wonder what his basis is…. does he think Stanford will beat UCLA on Friday or does he think we'll actually leapfrog the Bruins if they lose to Oregon?

Interesting.
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by Iggy » Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:06 pm

So from watching Palm, he thinks the winner of Friday's game will in fact leapfrog a 3-loss UCLA team.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be ECSTATIC to go to the Fiesta Bowl.... but if I'm UCLA, I'd be extremely PO'd if I beat both us and ASu and my 3rd loss is the championship game to Oregon (2 of the 3 losses will be to Oregon as well). It will essentially be penalizing the Bruins for winning the South and playing Oregon (and losing) again.

Really doesn't make much sense.

So like I said above, win it's San Antonio and lose it's the Bay Area.
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by El Gato » Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:12 pm

I just don't see a leap frog unless Oregon completely boat races them. I don't think the Committee will drop them after their statements that they won't penalize teams for late season losses.
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by Iggy » Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:18 pm

El Gato wrote:I just don't see a leap frog unless Oregon completely boat races them. I don't think the Committee will drop them after their statements that they won't penalize teams for late season losses.

Especially conference championship games.

I thought Palm was more credible than this.
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by uafan_joe » Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:32 pm

All of the above is irrelevant. Arizona is winning Friday and UCLA is going to lose to Stanford. Arizona plays for Pac-12 Championship. After that...
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by Doug » Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:23 pm

I have homer glasses, but I can think of scenarios where a team that has beaten another but has more losses isn't automatically going to be thought better than the team they beat due to one game. If they have 3 losses, including loss to Oregon, whom we beat, than is that 3 loss situation really so much better than our 2 loss scenario just because they beat us by 10 at home?

We beat Oregon last year. If we had finished within one loss of them, I wouldn't have considered us better.

In the case of ASu vs UCLA, there was a clear, painful decision with UCLA scoring 62, and winning by 35 AT ASu. We played one game, in LA, and lost by 10, a game that was contested into the 4th quarter (and the worst we have played all year, but that is subjective).

I think that a team with 2 losses, an impressive win over a #13 ASu, along with road wins over Oregon and Utah, is definitely in play to surpass a 3 loss team, especially if they are manhandled by the same Oregon team we beat, even with us having lost to them on the road by 10. Again, I don't think ASu would get the same consideration. But teams who have beaten other teams end up ranked below the team they beat all the time if they lose more games overall...
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by Stu Gotz » Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:57 pm

... after the Pac12 Championship game.

The Cats should move into the Top 10 win a win over ASu (their second consecutive win over a ranked opponent), and UCLA may move up a bit a well (7th / 8th?) with a win over Stanford. A UCLA loss in the conf championship game will (with 3 losses) move them out of the top 10 ... no question.

I think the Cats would have the inside track to the Fiesta based on the CFP, which is how it should be.
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