[Oro Valley Cat]

Not all of that jazzed to play Vandy/WSU winner but I think we will be fine there. I have not seen Miami play this year but hear they are a bad matchup for us because they are athletic with size. If we get by them we will have Nova who is good but I think overrated.

If we get past them I am a happy camper regardless of what else happens.

[greg23]

Miller hasnt lost to a lower seed (save 1 seed vs 2 seed) yet

We havent lost in the 1st round in a while

I wouldnt be surprised with a 1st round loss to either wich st or Vandy as we're due and this year's team losing in round 1 makes perfect sense.

I also wouldnt be totally shocked with a run to an elite 8 having a decent 2nd 3rd round draw

What's more likely with this team.....a string of 3 excellent games in a row vs top level ooc competition or 1 shaky game with a good half followed by another half with multiple breakdowns?

[Oro Valley Cat]

Nm

[Filthy Cats]

I wouldnt be surprised with a 1st round loss to either wich st or Vandy as we're due and this year's team losing in round 1 makes perfect sense.

I think you nailed it here, and unfortunately I agree with you. It does make perfect sense for us to lose in Round 1 this year. I have a sick feeling Van Fleet will hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to beat us. It will be a grueling end to the season, however and wherever it ends, most likely on Thursday night in Providence. This time of year is usually full of hope and anticipation for me as a fan, but not this year. It just feels different. We've lost too many close games this year to make me think when the going gets tough and the score close at the end of the game, that things will be any different, especially over the course of multiple games/weeks. March is for closers, and this year we are the opposite of that.

[gouacats]

I wouldnt be surprised with a 1st round loss to either wich st or Vandy as we're due and this year's team losing in round 1 makes perfect sense.

I think you nailed it here, and unfortunately I agree with you. It does make perfect sense for us to lose in Round 1 this year. I have a sick feeling Van Fleet will hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer to beat us. It will be a grueling end to the season, however and wherever it ends, most likely on Thursday night in Providence. This time of year is usually full of hope and anticipation for me as a fan, but not this year. It just feels different. We've lost too many close games this year to make me think when the going gets tough and the score close at the end of the game, that things will be any different, especially over the course of multiple games/weeks. March is for closers, and this year we are the opposite of that.

We're good at making games close, but we're not good at winning close games. I hope that changes starting this week...

[AzCatFan]

I'm with everyone here who feel the sense of dread coming on this year. We are a flawed team that lacks talent and floor leadership. It's a testament to the coaching job done this year that we were ranked most of the year and were in every game we played.

If we are looking for a silver lining, every game we lost, minus UCLA, was to a tournament team. The only neutral court losses we had happened either when we weren't at full strength, or to a #1 seed in O/T. It certainly feels like we can't close, but it's a very fine line between losing close games and winning them, and perhaps, just perhaps, we're due for some good luck when it comes to finishing. Stranger things have happened.

Regardless, the positive of this season is we've been competitive, even though we had injuries to two starters, a third injury that held out the best incoming freshman all year, and had to use stop-gap measures like Tollefson to play significant minutes, we were still a tournament lock mid-February. This is our "low", a 6-seed. In comparison, ASu hasn't been seeded this high since??? And Oregon State? This is their first NCAA Tournament trip since President Bush (the first). We'll be back to a top-10 team next year and fighting for a #1 seed. That should be the norm going forward, with the occasional "down" year like this where we're fighting for a #4 seed.

[Iggy]

I'm with everyone here who feel the sense of dread coming on this year. We are a flawed team that lacks talent and floor leadership. It's a testament to the coaching job done this year that we were ranked most of the year and were in every game we played.

If we are looking for a silver lining, every game we lost, minus UCLA, was to a tournament team. The only neutral court losses we had happened either when we weren't at full strength, or to a #1 seed in O/T. It certainly feels like we can't close, but it's a very fine line between losing close games and winning them, and perhaps, just perhaps, we're due for some good luck when it comes to finishing. Stranger things have happened.

Regardless, the positive of this season is we've been competitive, even though we had injuries to two starters, a third injury that held out the best incoming freshman all year, and had to use stop-gap measures like Tollefson to play significant minutes, we were still a tournament lock mid-February. This is our "low", a 6-seed. In comparison, ASu hasn't been seeded this high since??? And Oregon State? This is their first NCAA Tournament trip since President Bush (the first). We'll be back to a top-10 team next year and fighting for a #1 seed. That should be the norm going forward, with the occasional "down" year like this where we're fighting for a #4 seed.

Good perspective on Oregon State's situation. Does this mean they won't be back in the tournament until Gary Payton III is at OSU?!?

I was thinking about "down" years the other day and Lute had his share as well. Not including the first round flame-outs of 1992 and 1993 and the few years at the end of his tenure, I can recall a few years of good but not-so-great teams. 1995 was when we were eliminated by Devin Davis and Miami of OH. I think we were a 5 seed and they were a 12. I believe that was when Damon was suspended and we lost Blair for an amount of time. 1999 was when we lost to Oklahoma when we were once again a 5 and they were a 12. And even 2002 was sort of a down year when Salim, Channing and Fox were all FR and we made it to the Sweet 16. That was sandwiched between the 2001 team that made it to the finals vs Duke (damn you Mike Dunleavy) and the 2003 team that lost to Kansas in the elite 8. And 2004 we lost to Seton Hall in the first round when we were an 8 seed. And then 2005 brought us Lute's last great team and the epic meltdown vs Illinois.

[FlagCat]

Historically in the tournament, excellent guard play and having that one clutch player that can take command in late game situations are a couple of key factors for making a deep run. Seems we have neither.

[AzCatFan]

The great thing about the Tournament is anything can happen. Who would have predicted our run in 1997? How about Florida in 2006, after not making it out of the first weekend between 2002 and 2005? Or Florida Gulf Coast, George Mason, Butler, etc.?

Teams can and do catch "lightning in a bottle." Maybe we eek out a win against Vandy/WSU, have a hot game against Miami, and York goes crazy like he did against CAL and Stanford and before we know it, we're in the Final Four. Crazy? Yes. Impossible? No.

To me, the key to college basketball success is looking at the big picture. And it tells me if you are a yearly tournament lock and consistently get high seeds (not NCSU under Sendek), eventually, you will catch lightning and find yourself in a Final Four. Lute had a few down years as a #5 or #4 seed, and yes, some unexplainable first round flameouts. But in-between, he had four Final Fours and a Championship. Under Miller, I see no reason why we aren't in a similar pattern. A "down" year as a #4-#6 seed, but most years, we'll be on top. And eventually, as long as we keep knocking on the Final Four door, we'll break it down. And when we do, I think it's likely we'll be a Final Four regular, and might even have a period of Arizona basketball even better than ever before.

[Stallion]

I'm just hoping we play up to our seed line. Win the first game and see what happens against Miami.

But I'm terrified we'll lose on Thursday. Playing across the country against an under-seeded 11. Not ideal.

[Edit - from ESPN:

WHY TONIGHT'S FIRST FOUR GAME MATTERS
The matchup between Vanderbilt and Wichita State features two teams in the top 30 of ESPN's Basketball Power Index. Both teams would have at least a 40% chance to beat Arizona in the First Round and a 20% chance to advance to the Sweet 16.

From me: Ugh.]

Whatever happens I'm fully on board with Miller and giddy about our chances next year.

BEAR DOWN.