Basketball

Do we control our own destiny for a #1 seed?

Discussion on Sean Miller and the Arizona Basketball team

by XrayCat » Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:57 pm

Teams in consideration for a #1 seed not named Kentucky or Virginia:

Duke
Wisconsin
Villanova
Gonzaga
Arizona

I highly doubt Gonzaga gets the #1 seeding simply based on the conference they play in even if they do go undefeated the rest of the way. Besides us, they played Ucla, SMU. That's it for name schools out of conference.

Duke will be hard to overcome should they win out. If they finish the regular season without a loss, it would be 11 straight wins heading into conference play. Even if they lose in the ACC tourney, I think they'll have a #1 seed locked up.

I think the loss to Maryland may hurt the Badgers chances for a #1 seed especially if they slip up again in their final three games. However, should they win out and win the Big10 tourney, then they could make a very strong argument for the top spot.

Villanova is playing really good basketball right now. Should they win out, they'll finish with 12 straight victories. They have a couple of bad losses to Seton Hall and Georgetown but those are not as bad as our three losses. A strong showing in the Big East tourney may convince the committee that they belong as a #1 seed.

That leaves Arizona. And compared to the other contenders, I think a #1 seed is a long shot unless some unexpected losses take place above us, and even then it may take more than one loss from the other teams. However, that's not to say we don't have an argument. Finish out the last two weeks of conference play with wins and it'll be 11 straight wins. Should we we win the conference tournament, it'll be 14 straight wins including two wins likely over a very good Utah team.

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by Oro Valley Cat » Thu Feb 26, 2015 3:25 pm

I don't think so. I think the Zags do but hope I am wrong and you are right

#2 in the West is our best case in my opinion
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by XrayCat » Thu Feb 26, 2015 3:33 pm

That brings up an interesting argument. If the Zags do get bumped from the #1 slot, and we stay as a #2 seed, do they also get bumped by us as the best #2 team and they get moved to a different region or do we get shipped to the Midwest with a potential match-up with Kentucky to go to the Final Four?

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by greg23 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:30 pm

Do we control our own destiny for a 1 seed?
NO

Do we have a chance at a 1 seed?
YES

Basically it comes down to 6 teams for three 1 seeds (my order right now below)

uvu ( still has Lvle and cuse)

Duke (still has unc but road wins at Lvle uva wisc better than anyone else has.....coukd jump uva as 1 seed in east with a cc tourney win and Uva slip up in reg season)

Nova

AZ (at utah is a must for any chance at 1 seed as lack of quality road wins will hurt)

Wisc (no top 50 road wins....think they have msu and osu left)

Gonz (not sure where comm will slot them but think if they win out comm will give them 1 seed Opp kent)

At the end if threday it look pretty easy to slot everyone according to seed and geography

Kentucky - wisc
Gonz-az
Uva/duke-nova
Duke/uva-kan
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by sharkeez » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:06 pm

how do we avoid a Kentucky #1 / Arizona #2 bracket?
would 2 more losses bump us to Kentucky's bracket? what about a single loss? or just a bad loss?

a more fun topic:
i view a Gonzaga #1 / Arizona #2 bracket as VERY favorable to the UofA (according to the "experts", it's our current bracket scenario)
what would it take to maintain this pairing?
could we sustain a single loss?
would a loss bump Gonzaga from a #1 seed?
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by greg23 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:12 pm

sharkeez wrote:how do we avoid a Kentucky #1 / Arizona #2 bracket?
would 2 more losses bump us to Kentucky's bracket? what about a single loss? or just a bad loss?

a more fun topic:
i view a Gonzaga #1 / Arizona #2 bracket as VERY favorable to the UofA (according to the "experts", it's our current bracket scenario)
what would it take to maintain this pairing?
could we sustain a single loss?
would a loss bump Gonzaga from a #1 seed?


from everything i've read and seen recently...the comm places teams by geography more than the s-curve .....thus if we are a 2 seed there's almost 100% chance we stay in the west.....UNLESS

gonzaga is also deemed a 2 seed (meaning three of wisc-nova-duke-uva are 1 seeds) then it will come down to who they view as the stronger team; arizona or gonzaga; to stay in the west.

i think if gonzaga wins out they will be granted the 4th 1 seed (opp kentucky bracket) but if they lose they will be a 2 seed somewhere.

there really arent many teams on the heels of the top 7 vying for 2 seeds (kansas is prob the last 2 seed and they've lost a few recently but everybody behind them keeps losing) thus unless we lose 3+ more games; i dont see much of a chance of dropping to a 3 seed.
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by Sully » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:13 pm

Kentucky
Gonzaga
Virginia
Villanova

That'd be my best guess right now. Villanova's resume (God I hate that term) is pretty tough to beat. They've lost 2 games , one to the RPI #23 (G'town) and the RPI #68 (Seton Hall, who's plummeting. Some of their wins are underwhelming, but that's almost due to their craptastic conference.

I really don't care who gets which #1 seed. I just want (like everyone else) to avoid Kentucky until Indianapolis.
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by greg23 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:26 pm

Sully wrote:Kentucky
Gonzaga
Virginia
Villanova

That'd be my best guess right now. Villanova's resume (God I hate that term) is pretty tough to beat. They've lost 2 games , one to the RPI #23 (G'town) and the RPI #68 (Seton Hall, who's plummeting. Some of their wins are underwhelming, but that's almost due to their craptastic conference.

I really don't care who gets which #1 seed. I just want (like everyone else) to avoid Kentucky until Indianapolis.


right now i'd give duke the advantage with their 3-0 ROAD record vs rip teams 1-25 (and who are seeded 1-2-4)

nova is 2-1 in road games vs rpi 1-25 and they're vs vcu/providence

as FYI...we're 0-0, but have a chance for one vs utah this sat
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by Iggy » Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:06 pm

Let me put the shoe on the other foot.... what is our WORST case scenario right now??

I think it's losing tomorrow to Utah, winning both next week at home vs Cal/Stan and only winning one game in Vegas. That will put us at 28-5 overall with a probable regular season conference title split with Utah. Assuming the Utes win the conf tourn title, would that catapult them to the #2 in the west while we get shipped out somewhere as a #3? Looking at Utah's resume, their worst loss right now is to either UCLA or Oregon, both teams that Lunardi current;y has in the field of 68. Our "bad" losses are well documented. Heck, even our OT win at home vs the Zags is being discounted.

Well, eff it, let's win tomorrow, get some help from teams above us to lose and shoot for a #1 seed....
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by sharkeez » Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:52 pm

Iggy wrote:Let me put the shoe on the other foot.... what is our WORST case scenario right now??

I think it's losing tomorrow to Utah, winning both next week at home vs Cal/Stan and only winning one game in Vegas. That will put us at 28-5 overall with a probable regular season conference title split with Utah. Assuming the Utes win the conf tourn title, would that catapult them to the #2 in the west while we get shipped out somewhere as a #3? Looking at Utah's resume, their worst loss right now is to either UCLA or Oregon, both teams that Lunardi current;y has in the field of 68. Our "bad" losses are well documented. Heck, even our OT win at home vs the Zags is being discounted.

Well, eff it, let's win tomorrow, get some help from teams above us to lose and shoot for a #1 seed....


a couple days ago, i was thinking that Utah could leapfrog us and get our #2 seed if they beat us ... but after looking at the resumes, i don't think Utah can get to a #2 seed. they don't have a good enough record against the good teams (2-5 vs top50 RPI), and they have not shown the ability to beat good teams away from the Huntsman Center. i think their seeding ceiling is at #3.

Arizona
vs top25 RPI: 3-0
vs top50 RPI: 6-0
vs top100 RPI: 13-2
away: 7-3
neutral: 3-0
best road wins: @Oregon #39, @Stanford #51, SDSU #23 (neutral)

Utah
vs top25 RPI: 1-3
vs top50 RPI: 2-5
vs top100 RPI: 9-5
away record: 5-5
neutral: 1-0
best road wins: @BYU #56, @ASu #83
Utah really doesn't have a great road win. they just aren't that good on the road.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/nitty-gritty-report
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